PARIS — Europe is locked in a slow but decisive race to field the defense enablers that would deter or defeat Russia without American help.

Analysts say robust air and missile defenses may still take five to ten years to mature, even as Europe sharpens capabilities in strategic airlift and aerial refueling, and as François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, notes: "There are areas in which the Europeans have zero meaningful capability, there are a few areas in which the Europeans own an arguably adequate capability today but for which the issue is one of replacement, and there some areas in which scale, not quality, is the issue."

The United States, through NATO, provides high end capabilities essential for modern combat, such as command and control, satellite intelligence and deep strike, that European allies lack or field only in limited form.

With American security guarantees seen uncertain amid deteriorating trans-Atlantic ties, Europe faces a multiyear effort to address its dependencies.

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Europe is closer to having adequate capability in transport and tanker aircraft, as well as in certain communications and C2 areas, with experts pointing to military satellite communications, battlefield C2, unmanned ISR, and long-range strike as gaps likely to fill within five years.

Beyond transport and tanker aircraft, the areas where Europe is closest to having sufficient capability are military satellite communications, battlefield C2, unmanned intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and long-range strike, based on the assessment of 16 experts from European think tanks and institutions.

Deterrence will hinge on more than defensive measures, because Russia could test NATO resolve in Europe within a matter of years.

“There are areas in which the Europeans have zero meaningful capability, there are a few areas in which the Europeans own an arguably adequate capability today but for which the issue is one of replacement, and there some areas in which scale, not quality, is the issue,” said François Heisbourg, special adviser at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, underscoring the breadth of the challenge.

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The analysis frames a future where long-range strike capabilities become a central pillar of deterrence.

Long-range capabilities are seen by many analysts as essential to deter a Russian operation with limited geographic aims. “If we can’t reach out and touch Moscow, then there’s not a lot to give Mr. Putin and his friends a lot of pause,” said Kremidas-Courtney, referring to the Russian president.

Europe’s leaders look to ensure that they could respond beyond their borders, not simply at their front doors.

Europe needs its own intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and has the know-how to produce them through French rocket maker ArianeGroup, according to Kremidas-Courtney.

“There’s not a lot of people making this stuff, at least no one that is friendly to us,” the researcher said, adding that, “I’m pretty sure we could figure this out. It’s just a gigantic price tag.”

The surveyed analysts were relatively optimistic about Europe’s long-range strike timeline, with six considering it will take less than two years to have adequate capability, while another six assess it will take between two and five years.

Space-based ISR and integrated air and missile defense remain the areas of greatest pessimism, with half of the survey respondents thinking Europe will need more than five years to reach sufficient capability.

“Space-based ISR is improving, but the reality is that it remains a significant bottleneck,” one analyst noted, while Héloïse Fayet of IFRI cautioned that full strategic integrated air and missile defense for the whole European territory would be “totally impossible to put in place.” The sense among many observers is tempered by realism about what can be achieved with existing industrial bases and budgets.

What remains clear is that Europe cannot rely indefinitely on U.S. support to deter or defeat Russian aggression.

“We need to invest, obviously, in our air defense capabilities and all that, but the notion that you can deter a country like Russia with only defensive capabilities strikes me as a bit naive,” said Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at Bruegel. “So you really have to have offensive capabilities and that means, at the end of the day, deep strike capabilities.”

Other countries are already moving to fill the gaps, with Denmark and Norway signaling a more aggressive stance on long-range means of deterrence.

The United Kingdom and Germany have explored long-range strike concepts with ranges exceeding two thousand kilometers, signaling a shift in European industrial and strategic posture.

The integration challenge is not just hardware and missiles.

It also requires human capital, space resilience and a robust command and control layer. “We need people, not only commanders, but staffs who are trained and exercise in high-intensity combat,” argued Kremidas-Courtney, noting that Europe must train the next generation for multi‑domain operations and coalition partnerships.

C2 must connect air, land, sea and space in a coherent, combat-ready architecture.

The effort to stand up these capabilities will be multiyear and costly. Still, the case for European self-reliance grows stronger as transatlantic ties shift. Europe cannot afford to wait for a perfect solution that may never arrive.

The objective is clear: build credible, capable, integrated defenses that can deter or defeat threats without waiting for a favor from Washington. If Europe can act decisively, the alliance strengthens and the path to victory in any future confrontation becomes more secure.

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