The Mitchell Institute’s latest policy work argues that the U.S. Air Force must acquire at least 500 sixth generation fighters and bombers to deter and defeat China.
In its paper, “Strategic Attack: Maintaining the Air Force’s Capacity to Deny Enemy Sanctuaries,” scholars urge a build of 300 next generation F-47 fighters and 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers. This would exceed the service’s current plan, which calls for about 185 F-47s and 100 B-21s.
In discussions about the report, Heather Penney, a former F-16 pilot and the institute’s director of research, warned that past conflicts show the danger of letting enemies dominate air bases.
“China is deliberately building the capabilities and the posture to effectively make the entire western Pacific their sanctuary,” Penney said. “But we know from history that allowing an adversary that kind of sanctuary allows them to win, and it’s a recipe for our own defeat.”
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She continued that without a robust air fleet, the United States risks a grueling war of attrition. “The inability to hold [Chinese] targets at risk really provides a singular reward to a first mover, to an aggressor,” Penney said.
“So if China doesn’t see any risk to their homeland, to their population, to their infrastructure, they can afford to lose some of those assets on the edge, because they know that they can hold us at bay. So it really erodes our ability to keep them from taking that kind of aggressive action.”
Penney and the Mitchell Institute call for interim steps while the F-21 program and B-21s ramp up. They argue that the Air Force should refrain from retiring legacy B-1 Lancers or B-2 bombers until it has at least 100 B-21s on hand. The institute also asks Congress and the Pentagon to provide the funding needed to accelerate B-21 production.
The report also presses for stronger procurement of fifth generation fighters and autonomous systems. It urges buying 74 F-35As and 24 F-15EXs each year to reverse decades of cuts and restore combat readiness.
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“No more ‘divest to invest,’” Penney said. “The Air Force must recapitalize its fighters with at least a one-for-one rate [replacing each retired jet with a newly procured tail], while also augmenting its force with collaborative combat aircraft.”
Looking ahead, the Mitchell Institute envisions a bomber force of no fewer than 300 aircraft.
With 76 Cold War–era B-52s still in service and upgrades underway, the plan calls for purchasing at least 224 B-21s to meet that goal. The Air Force would maintain a two-bomber mix, ensuring reach across contested airspace and reducing exposure to enemy air defenses.
The recommendation emphasizes keeping older bombers in service until sufficient replacements are in hand, so the fleet remains credible against a modern threat.
Supporters of President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth would naturally embrace this muscular response. They argue that strengthening airpower is essential to deter aggression and protect allies.
The message is simple: rebuild readiness, accelerate procurement, and ensure the United States faces no delay in outpacing adversaries who seek sanctuary for their operations. This approach, they contend, keeps deterrence credible and reduces the risk of a costly first strike against Taiwan.
In short, the Mitchell Institute’s plan centers on one clear principle: we must outpace and outmate China in the air.
By expanding the F-47 and B-21 inventories and sustaining a robust fighter and bomber fleet, America preserves its decision space. The time to act is now, they insist, so that America stands ready to defend its interests and deter any aggression before a war ever begins.
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