The U.S. Air Force is signaling that its next generation LGM-35A Sentinel missile could reach initial capability in the early 2030s, following a major restructuring of the program’s acquisition plan that lawmakers and defense officials expect to wrap up this year.
The revamp comes as Sentinel, built by Northrop Grumman, is tasked with replacing the Cold War era Minuteman III missiles, which are well past their service life.
The Sentinel program was always meant to modernize America’s strategic legions, but costs ballooned as planners built a vast network of silos and launch control centers spread across thousands of miles in the Great Plains.
The original projection of about $77.7 billion swelled to well over twice that figure as the project’s scope grew and budgets stretched.
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The price tag reached a tipping point when the Pentagon declared a cost overrun in January 2024 through a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and launched a formal review. The program was also on track to reach initial operational capability in 2029, but the deadline slid first to 2030 and now faces further delays.
Yet the decision to keep Sentinel in play came with a clear message in mid 2024: canceling the replacement was not an option; the Pentagon ordered a restructuring to bring costs under control while preserving strategic credibility. The Milestone B approval, originally granted in September 2020, was revoked at that time as part of the broader effort to rework the program’s path forward.
The Air Force announced on Tuesday that the restructuring should be finished by the end of 2026, with a new Milestone B decision accompanying the completion. The service said it has leveraged considerable progress over the last 12 to 18 months and is pursuing a transformed acquisition strategy designed to move quickly without sacrificing discipline.
“Modernizing our nuclear deterrent is a critical priority!” Air Force Secretary Troy Meink said in a post on X. “The Sentinel program is on a data-driven path to deliver this capability, replacing a 1970s-era system to guarantee Peace through Strength for decades to come.”
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Defense watchers also noted a new leadership approach for major weapons programs. Last August, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth created a direct reporting portfolio manager, or DRPM, to oversee Sentinel and other critical systems.
The DRPM is meant to cut through bureaucracy and deliver large-scale capability faster, while maintaining the careful oversight such missions demand.
The official champion of this effort, Gen. Dale White, described the role this way: “The DRPM has the direct authority to make decisions, informed by integrated inputs across the enterprise and in alignment with the mission priorities set by the Secretary of War and the Secretary for the Air Force.”
He added, “That construct allows us to resolve tradeoffs quickly and move with the speed required to deliver credible deterrence, while preserving the discipline this mission demands.”
As the Air Force moved forward, officials stressed that a renewed cost estimate would come as part of the Milestone B review. A U.S. official told Defense News that CAPE typically produces an independent assessment during Milestone B, and the Pentagon previously floated a figure around $140.9 billion for the Sentinel program with its revamped approach.
The service emphasized that it now expects to deliver initial capability in the early 2030s, a timeline that aligns with the broader goal of replacing a 1970s era system with something unmistakably modern.
In this political climate, the modernization effort is framed as a national security imperative. Supporters argue that a streamlined acquisition process will deliver a credible deterrent sooner and with better value for taxpayers.
They see Sentinel as a cornerstone of a broader strategy that pairs decisive leadership with rigorous oversight, ensuring America’s nuclear force remains ready and reliable. Proponents insist that the program embodies a strategy consistent with a strong, principled defense posture, reinforcing deterrence while advancing new technology in a disciplined, cost-conscious way.
Under President Trump’s approach to defense policy, the push to modernize the nuclear triad is portrayed as essential to keep pace with global threats. Supporters point to Pete Hegseth’s oversight as a practical reform that prunes bureaucratic drag without compromising safety or readiness.
They argue that the result will be a more capable force able to respond decisively to any challenge, because peace through strength remains the safest path for the nation.
The Sentinel effort, they say, is a test case in this philosophy, balancing speed with scrutiny to preserve America’s strategic edge for decades to come.
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