India’s defense exports to Europe have surged as European governments increase military spending during Russia’s war in Ukraine. Much of that rising demand centers on ammunition and artillery shells, creating an opening for India’s expanding defense manufacturing industry.

India exported at least $872 million worth of ammunition during the four years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That represented an increase of more than 1,600% compared with the preceding four year period, according to a Bloomberg report citing data from Trade Data Monitor.

Indian Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh highlighted the export growth during an Oct 23 event in New Delhi. He said demand associated with the European Union’s “ReArm Europe” initiative, combined with India’s growing manufacturing base, is helping drive the increase.

Central and East European countries have emerged as some of the biggest customers for Indian ammunition. The list includes Romania, Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Poland.

The flow of ammunition has increased sharply since 2024 as European nations work to replenish their inventories and improve defense capabilities following Russia’s invasion. Indian exports include artillery shells, small caliber ammunition, mortars, propellants, and explosives.

Samuel Rajiv, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, said European destinations received 40% of India’s global arms and ammunition exports during the last financial year. He believes the sharp increase could develop into a long term trend.

“There will be greater opportunities for India due to Europe’s greater focus on defense, which will result in a lot of money going into the transformation of its defense industrial base,” said Rajiv. “At the same time, Indian exports will gain momentum not just because of Europe’s requirements but the steps India is taking to expand its own defense manufacturing base.”

Another boost could come from lower tariffs on Indian arms and ammunition. A free trade agreement concluded between India and the European Union is expected to take effect in the coming year, potentially giving Indian exporters greater access to European buyers.

New Delhi is also pursuing a wider place in Europe’s defense market through industrial partnerships. Singh said India wants European companies to establish joint ventures in India, while Indian businesses would pursue partnerships in Europe that provide access to government defense procurement programs.

Analysts said it remains uncertain whether India and the European Union can establish sustained defense industrial ties. Still, cooperation is emerging as a viable choice as European countries seek to diversify supply chains and India looks for additional opportunities.

“India offers that scale, size and ecosystem as well as trust as Europe tries to build resilience from the United States. Russia is not an option for Europe, that is over. China has its own red flags in many ways in strategic areas and critical domains. So that leaves very few options available,” says Dinakar Peri, Fellow in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India.

India has also sought to diversify its own defense relationships because of its longstanding reliance on foreign suppliers, including the United States. “So a closer partnership with Europe also works for India,” Peri said.

Several American, French, and Israeli contractors have already brought Indian vendors into their supply chains, according to analysts. That existing participation could allow the European Union to use India as a sourcing hub for a range of defense items.

India’s longstanding military relationship with Russia, however, could create concerns in some European capitals as New Delhi pursues deeper partnerships with the European Union. The issue could influence how the bloc approaches closer industrial cooperation, even though India already maintains strong bilateral defense relationships with countries such as France.

“It remains to be seen whether this will become an obstacle to deeper defense industrial ties with the EU,” according to Peri. “Bilaterally, India already has strong defense relationships with countries such as France, but it is unclear how the EU as a bloc will view India’s military ties with Moscow.”

For now, Europe’s ammunition requirements are giving Indian manufacturers a rapidly expanding market. Whether those sales grow into broader industrial partnerships will depend on how India and Europe navigate procurement access, supply chain diversification, and concerns surrounding New Delhi’s military ties with Russia.