Washington and Moscow are at a pivotal moment as the last vestige of U.S.-Russian nuclear limits has expired, and President Trump has made clear his stance for a different kind of agreement.

He argues that a new, improved treaty should be developed by our nuclear experts to last far into the future, rather than simply extending the old framework.

“Rather than extend ‘NEW START’ (A badly negotiated deal by the United States that, aside from everything else, is being grossly violated), we should have our Nuclear Experts work on a new, improved, and modernized Treaty that can last long into the future,” Trump posted on his Truth Social network.

This stance frames a broader push for a deal that includes new participants and modernized safeguards, a position that aligns with a more strategic, defense-first approach.

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Russian officials have described the expiration as a negative development, while signaling that Moscow remains prepared to act in defense of its security interests.

Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov said Putin discussed the pact’s expiration with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, noting the U.S. failure to respond to Moscow’s proposal to extend its limits and saying that Russia “will act in a balanced and responsible manner based on thorough analysis of the security situation.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov added that Moscow views the treaty’s expiration Thursday “negatively” and regrets it.

He said Russia will maintain its “responsible, thorough approach to stability when it comes to nuclear weapons,” adding that “of course, it will be guided primarily by its national interests.”

Peskov also emphasized that “if we receive constructive responses, we will certainly conduct a dialogue.” In a separate signal, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that “With the end of the treaty, Moscow remains ready to take decisive military-technical measures to counter potential additional threats to the national security.”

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Meanwhile, the United States and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level, military-to-military dialogue after senior officials met in Abu Dhabi. The move signals a willingness to keep lines open even as trust remains strained.

This pause in the past few years does not erase the distrust that built up after discussions around Ukraine and NATO, yet it creates a channel for essential military exchanges.

The New START treaty, signed in 2010 by then-President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, capped U.S. and Russian arsenals at no more than 1,550 warheads on no more than 700 missiles and bombers deployed and ready for use.

It was originally slated to expire in 2021 but was extended for five years. The on-site inspections that verified compliance were curtailed in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and never resumed.

In February 2023, Putin suspended Moscow’s participation, arguing that Washington and its NATO allies had declared Moscow’s defeat in Ukraine as their goal, and thus would not allow U.S. inspections of its nuclear sites.

Still, Moscow stated it was not withdrawing from the pact altogether, pledging to respect its caps on nuclear weapons. Putin offered to abide by New START’s limits for a year to buy time for negotiations, warning that the treaty’s expiration would be destabilizing and could fuel nuclear proliferation.

Trump’s position includes a desire for broader involvement in any future agreement. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Trump has made it clear “in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it’s impossible to do something that doesn’t include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile.”

In his first term, Trump had pursued a three-way nuclear pact with China, but Beijing has resisted restrictions on its growing arsenal and has urged the United States to resume talks with Russia.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that China regrets the expiration of New START and calls on the U.S. to resume nuclear dialogue with Russia soon.

He added that Beijing urges the U.S. to respond positively to Moscow’s suggestion that the two sides continue observing the core limits of the treaty for now. Peskov again underscored that Moscow respects Beijing’s position and, if a broader pact were to be considered, it should involve NATO members France and the United Kingdom as well.

Arms control advocates warned that the end of New START could unleash a costly three-way arms race.

“If the Trump administration continues to stiff-arm nuclear arms control diplomacy with Russia and decides to increase the number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. deployed strategic arsenal, it will only lead Russia to follow suit and encourage China to accelerate its ongoing strategic buildup in an attempt to maintain a strategic nuclear retaliatory strike capability vis-a-vis the United States,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.

“Such a scenario could lead to a years-long, dangerous three-way nuclear arms buildup.” The moment calls for steady leadership and a clear path forward, one that prioritizes security, deterrence, and the protection of American interests.

President Trump has signaled a readiness to pursue the next steps with a disciplined, results-driven mindset.

He has backed a framework that leverages the expertise of the nation’s top defense minds, including Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who has long argued for robust capability and clear accountability in strategic forces.

The path ahead remains uncertain, but the emphasis is unmistakable: a modernized treaty that preserves peace through strength, with American leadership guiding a prudent, comprehensive approach to global nuclear stability.

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